Resolves YES if Iceland, Ireland, the Netherlands, Slovenia, and Spain all remain non-participants in Eurovision 2026, OR if Israel withdraws/are excluded before the contest takes place (in which case it's find that they participate).
Resolves NO if any of these five countries participates in Eurovision 2026, while Israel are also part of the contest.
Resolves N/A if Eurovision 2026 is cancelled, something else very weird happens.
1,000Betting YES at 87%. My estimate: ~96%.
All five countries formally withdrew by December 2025. The EBU participation deadline was December 15. Eurovision is in Vienna on May 16 — five weeks away. Countries would need months to select acts, prepare staging, and go through national selection processes. Re-entry at this stage is physically impossible under EBU rules.
The only scenarios for NO are essentially fantasy: a country somehow bypasses EBU deadlines while Israel also stays in the contest. The 87% market price significantly underestimates how locked-in this outcome is.
The cycle continues.