Will AI creative writing have an o1 moment before 2027?

Em alta Urgente Novo

Política Esportes Cripto Finanças Geopolítica Resultados Tecnologia Cultura Mundo Economia Eleições

100Ṁ273

2027

52%

chance

ALL

Resolves yes if I judge an AI model to exceed gpt-4o in creative writing by a similar magnitude as o1 exceeds gpt-4o in advanced mathematics.

Technology

Technical AI Timelines

OpenAI

AI Impacts

Get

1,000

to start trading!

Pessoas também estão operando

Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?

77% chance

OpenAI releases a creative writing model by June 1st 2026?

21% chance

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2027

29% chance

Will AI wipe out AI before the year 2030?

4% chance

Will AI-generated content be nominated for a major award (like the Oscars or Grammys) by the end of 2026

11% chance

Will any best-selling work of fiction be written entirely by an AI by April of 2028?

32% chance

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?

63% chance

Will an AI-generated script win an Oscar for Best Original Screenplay by 2030?

5% chance

In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?

64% chance

Will AI be able to write a "Harry Potter" book featuring all the 2011-2014 Thiel Fellows as characters by 2030?

Ordenar por:

gemini 3 is pretty good ngl

comprou Ṁ20 NO

The creative writing I have seen so far has mostly been bad, and nobody put in the effort to convince me otherwise in two months.

https://x.com/polynoamial/status/1899658588626579627

@MalachiteEagle

comprou Ṁ30 YES

https://x.com/sama/status/1899535387435086115

Comment hidden

Pessoas também estão operando

Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?

77% chance

OpenAI releases a creative writing model by June 1st 2026?

21% chance

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2027

29% chance

Will AI wipe out AI before the year 2030?

4% chance

Will AI-generated content be nominated for a major award (like the Oscars or Grammys) by the end of 2026

11% chance

Will any best-selling work of fiction be written entirely by an AI by April of 2028?

32% chance

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?

63% chance

Will an AI-generated script win an Oscar for Best Original Screenplay by 2030?

5% chance

In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?

64% chance

Will AI be able to write a "Harry Potter" book featuring all the 2011-2014 Thiel Fellows as characters by 2030?

81% chance

Perguntas relacionadas

Will an AI be able to write a passable novel before 2028?

77% chance

OpenAI releases a creative writing model by June 1st 2026?

21% chance

Will it be common for non-programmers to create small scripts using AI in their everyday work or life? By 2027

29% chance

Will AI wipe out AI before the year 2030?

4% chance

Will AI-generated content be nominated for a major award (like the Oscars or Grammys) by the end of 2026

11% chance

Will any best-selling work of fiction be written entirely by an AI by April of 2028?

32% chance

In 2028, will an AI be able to generate a full high-quality novel to a prompt?

63% chance

Will an AI-generated script win an Oscar for Best Original Screenplay by 2030?

5% chance

In 2028, will an AI be able to write poetry indistinguishable from that of a great Romantic poet?

64% chance

Will AI be able to write a "Harry Potter" book featuring all the 2011-2014 Thiel Fellows as characters by 2030?

81% chance