@Drethelin

👀

the probability mass is front loaded in the 31-45 range so theta should probably exceed 53%/14 =4% decline per year at this point. Perhaps 6%/year

If nobody at manifest was good enough to hook up with her then the intersection between men she wants and men who will plausibly commit to her is probably the empty set

Tick tock

updating upward slightly on her joining keeper.ai

This description really doesn't match the title. It's quite plausible she'll have a baby after turning 45.

We have to cut it off somewhere to resolve the market, and age 45 would be the upper bound of a >99% confidence interval on when she'll have the baby if she has a baby.
https://www.nytimes.com/2018/11/22/learning/whats-going-on-in-this-graph-nov-28-2018.html

@JonathanRay The future may not be exactly like the past :)

@IsaacKing I've fixed the title