
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated before basic AGI?
63
1ká¹€62672101
35%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
including tests; metaculus definition
Esta pergunta é gerenciada e resolvida pela Predita.
Get
1,000 to start trading!
Ordenar por:
@traders this is a notoriously inactive creator -- I suggest we extend the resolution date to 2100. I'm going to do that now, but if you have a strong and compelling consensus opinion that this should not be done, you could try to convince it to close at the end of 2023 instead.
Pessoas também estão operando
Perguntas relacionadas
Will we get AGI before WW3?
41% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2026?
16% chance
Will we get AGI before we get fusion reactors?
56% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in combat before January 1, 2030?
12% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated as part of the middle-east conflict before 2028?
6% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be fired in anger before 2075?
54% chance
Will a nuclear weapon be detonated in the year 2030?
12% chance
Will AGI or widespread commercial nuclear fusion be developed first?
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2027?
17% chance
Will any nuclear weapon be detonated in 2029?
13% chance