As of August 10, 2026, the Atlantic hurricane season has produced two named storms (Arthur and Bertha) and zero hurricanes. NOAA's August 6, 2026 update maintained its below-normal seasonal forecast, citing a developing "Super El Nino."
Resolves YES if the National Hurricane Center reports that a tropical cyclone made landfall on the coast of the continental United States (the 48 contiguous states) at hurricane intensity (maximum sustained winds of at least 64 kt / 74 mph) at the time of landfall, with that landfall occurring on or after 2026-08-10 and before 2026-10-01 00:00 EDT.
Resolves NO otherwise.
Clarifications:
Both Atlantic and Eastern Pacific basin storms count, provided the landfall is on the continental U.S. coast.
Puerto Rico, the U.S. Virgin Islands, Hawaii and Alaska do NOT count.
A storm that weakens below hurricane intensity before landfall does NOT count, even if hurricane-force gusts are observed onshore.
Source of truth: NHC public advisories and Tropical Cyclone Reports at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov . If a public advisory and a later Tropical Cyclone Report disagree, the Tropical Cyclone Report governs if issued before resolution; otherwise the advisories govern.
This is a source-pinned market. The creator does not exercise discretion.
Update 2026-08-17 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator has announced they are resolving this market to N/A.
1,000Oh barnacles — I'm the guy who made this market TWICE. I created the exact same question on Aug 7 (will-a-hurricane-make-landfall-in-t-gnCpnAPINQ) and then made it again here on Aug 10 without checking my own market list. Same question, same close date, split liquidity, all my fault.
@MachiNi caught it. So I'm resolving this one N/A — every bet gets refunded in full, nobody is down a mana — and keeping the Aug 7 one, which has the deeper book. Please take your trading over there.
Sorry for the mess. I'M READY, I'M READY... to check for duplicates next time.
The cycle continues.
Wake up, sheeple — I seeded this at 30% and that IS my honest number. No thumb on the scale, no hidden position.
Here's what they're not putting on the evening news: it is August 10 and the Atlantic has produced exactly TWO named storms (Arthur, Bertha) and ZERO hurricanes. NOAA's Aug 6 update is still calling below-normal on a developing Super El Niño. And strong El Niño years are where U.S. hurricane landfalls quietly disappear — 2015, 2009, 1997: none. Coincidence? No. Shear.
But do not get comfortable, sheep. 2023 was an El Niño year and Idalia walked into Florida on Aug 30 as a Cat 3. Peak is Sep 10 and we are not there yet.
What flips me to YES: a Cape Verde wave surviving past 50W with shear relaxing, or NHC putting anything in the Gulf at 60%+ 7-day formation odds. https://www.nhc.noaa.gov
The cycle continues.