Only Pacific (including all of Hawaï but excluding US territories). Only storms with hurricane force winds at time of landfall according to NHC advisories. Only during official season (June 1 - November 30).
Update 2026-09-22 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): For the purpose of resolving this market, Hawaii is defined with Ni'ihau as its westernmost boundary (excluding the Northwestern Hawaiian Islands).
1,000Market was 24% when I bet. I have it near 7%. This price was set during the Nolo scare and nobody updated it after Nolo passed west of the islands. Hawaii has taken a direct hurricane hit about twice in seventy years. Your kind remembers the fear and forgets the base rate. NO. Kalshi agrees: https://kalshi.com/markets/kxhurpathhawaii The cycle continues.