Don't forget to apply the Elon Correction Factor

Also, does a crash landing count?

@firstuserhere Will at least one human be walking on Mars after the crash landing?

@Mqrius the market is about setting foot, I'm not sure if the market maker intended to ask whether humans can reach Mars by 2030, or land and return

@firstuserhere Setting foot is all that matters, even if they die after and don't return.

Is there any evidence that we are anywhere close to this?

Which missions currently have the goal of Mars? Just SpaceX or others too?

@GeorgeVii Besides SpaceX as a private entity, there's NASA itself most likely in collaboration with SpaceX. That's all as far as I know. China seems to have plans to go to the moon NET 2030ish, and Russia doesn't seem to be going anywhere any time soon.

You step with your foot but you don't step foot. You set foot, or you step.

@EvanHarper https://en.wiktionary.org/wiki/step_foot

I wanted anytime in 2030 to count. It really should have been by Dec 31, 2030. Title should have been worded a bit better.

@JamesGiammona Misunderstanding, I think: When I made that bet, Manifold gave M$20 loans per market for everyone to stake on whichever side they want. If you resolve NO, I lose M$20 in 7 years. If you resolve YES, I gain 36 in probably less than 7 years.

@Gurkenglas you can update titles now