Why will "If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?" resolve N/A?

660Ṁ874

2029

10%

Too many existing humans suffer death

Too many existing humans suffer other awful fates

17%

80% of currently attainable cosmopolitan value becomes unattainable

12%

The concept of "maximum attainable cosmopolitan value" is not meaningful

As a demonstration of treacherous turns, trolling, or lulz

13%

Some other reason

22%

No reason given after 30 days

18%

It will not resolve N/A

This Yudkowsky market will resolve N/A.

/EliezerYudkowsky/if-artificial-general-intelligence

But can you predict why?

Resolves to the reason given by Yudkowsky.

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If Artificial General Intelligence has an okay outcome, what will be the reason?

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7 Comentários

16 Posições

122 Atividades

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aberto a Ṁ5 YES at 13% order

@MartinRandall As I read it, it means AGI assimilates human culture to a tragic degree.

People are uncertain about AI doom but 75% confident that Yudkowsky will do it for the lulz.

ISTM it's likely we all die before EY gets the chance to log on to Manifold and resolve the market.

How does this market resolve if that one doesn't resolve N/A?

@IsaacKing Oh, I didn't see that one of the responses covers that.

@IsaacKing I will take a brief break from luxuriating in 20% of max attainable value to realize that I'm in an impossible thought experiment set up to test my integrity, put down my ultra-chocolate, and carefully resolve this market to the correct answer to demonstrate my counterfactual integrity to the larger universe that is simulating me, thus slightly increasing my expected returns in the larger universe. And then I'll go back to the ultra-chocolate.