A new documentary promises to unravel the mystery of Satoshi Nakamoto's identity. The expected release date is 4/22/2026:
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08&t=1s
If the movie gives an answer or, at least, a favorite choice, then I will resolve it to that name.
If the movie names a specific group of people, I will resolve each of them equally.
If the movie does not name a definite or favorite candidate, I will resolve to "movie does not give an answer"
Feel free to add more names, or to ask me to do so.
Update 2026-04-09 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If multiple people are named as Satoshi:
If all are on the list, resolves equally to each listed person
If some are not on the list, "Other" gains the weight of unlisted people
If a specific unnamed group is named (e.g. "the CIA"), resolves to "Other"
If multiple people are implied but none specifically named, resolves to "Movie does not give an answer"
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@PeterMillerc030 I was trying to think of unlikely answers which would still fit the criteria described by claude and by the preview.
The preview implied there was some connection to Bram Cohen and other people suggested that maybe the film concluded that Satoshi was dead.
Len Sassaman is one obvious choice, but I don't think Len is Satoshi (it would take a while to explain why, maybe I'll try later). The simplest reason is just that Satoshi posted after Len died.
The director also states that, "the answer is one that some may not have considered". Sassaman is pretty high on the list of usual suspects, not a particularly obscure choice.
Dan Kaminsky was friends with both Cohen and Sassaman. He died in 2021.
Dan was a security expert. He liked to mock journalists who searched for Satoshi, calling Satoshi their white whale.
Len Sassaman is famous for having an obituary in the Bitcoin blockchain. Dan Kaminsky is the guy who programmed that obituary into the blockchain. I noticed that the obituary has double spaces. Dan Kaminsky liked to double space after a period, just like Satoshi famously did.
https://manifold.markets/Dssc/will-the-upcoming-documentary-findi?r=RHNzYw
If anybody wants to also bet on whether the documentary will actually find him this time
@ChurlishGambit If they claim Satoshi was multiple people that are on the list, then it resolves equally to each of those people.
If they list multiple people and one or more is not on the list, then "Other" gains the weight of those unlisted people.
If they claim it was a specific group, which is not listed here, i.e. "Bitcoin was made by the CIA", then it resolves to "Other"
If they claim it was multiple people, but do not name any specific people or any specific group, then it resolves to "Movie does not give an answer".
I have no idea what the documentary will go with, but I wrote up a few more thoughts for why I don't think it's actually Hal Finney:
https://medium.com/@tgof137/hal-finney-is-probably-not-satoshi-bf91a23bb151
Why I think the documentary will say Hal Finney:
The Official Finding Satoshi Documentary Twitter Account has posted numerous teasers besides the video about the documentary, including:
These basically completely fit Hal Finney being who the documentary is going with. US geographic profiling, major Extropian, not british, double spaces after periods, PGP/Remailer Dev, including working at PGP Corporation directly under Phil Zimmermann, an interviewee. The other candidates only fit like half these descriptions, with the exception of Nick Szabo. (Although Nick Szabo isn't really as well known as Finney for having Extropian and PGP ties, and doesn't have teaser footage)
Also, at 1:43 in the trailer, that's Sonoran Desert, based on the cacti, which is where Hal Finney was crypreserved. AFAIK Hal Finney is the only candidate with any connection to the Sonoran Desert.
Also, the official website has this quote, which implies that there is a reveal, and it's going to be a single person. The website and other promotional materials generally have a general messaging that this is supposed to be a celebration of Satoshi rather than a doxxing of a person ("part human portrait"). This is purely speculation, but it reads more like a description of a dead person rather than a biopic of an alive person who doesn't actually want to be in said biopic IMO. Would be much easier to have a "human portrait" storytelling arc of a guy who isn't alive to contradict any details.
I saw the photo of Hal Finney in that race, but it seems to be early in the investigation when they are still introducing the candidates. My expectations for the documentary aren't super high, but I do expect them to at least aknowledge some of the counter-arguments for whoever their candidate ends up being, such as the race. It could also easily just be a red herring to make their eventual reveal more of a plot-twist.
@Dssc Szabo's picture is on the whiteboard in the trailer.
Also, at 0:19 in this video
https://x.com/findingsatoshi_/status/2041883638825107922
I assume the Len Sassaman bets are based on the image of Brussels in the trailer. However, I think that's actually because, according to their website, they are interviewing Meredith Patterson, who I believe lives in Brussels, and who, among many other things, is also the widow of Len Sassaman. I think this is actually somewhat evidence against Sassaman being the documentary's candidate, as she has publically denied Len Sassaman being Satoshi in the past, and is likely to have the same stance in this interview. This certainly doesn't prove anything, but I do think it makes the Brussels evidence a lot weaker.
Why I think it's probably not Hal Finney:
Jameson Lopp wrote an article where he found that Hal was running a race at the same time that Satoshi was writing an e-mail and sending a bitcoin:
https://blog.lopp.net/hal-finney-was-not-satoshi-nakamoto/
At 1:54 in the preview, their whiteboard has a photo of Hal Finney in that race.
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=gVxAwomug08&t=1s
Benjamin Wallace spent 15 years investigating and concluded it was James A Donald. Interesting summary here:
https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article/bitcoin-satoshi-nakamoto-benjamin-wallace-book-excerpt.html
Claude/Opus 4.6 Research provided the following probabilities:
∙ Len Sassaman (solo or primary): 40–50%
∙ Sassaman-Finney collaboration: 15–20%
∙ Hal Finney (solo): 10–15%
∙ Someone truly unexpected (Wei Dai, other): 10–15%
∙ Adam Back: 3–5%
∙ Nick Szabo: 3–5%
∙ “Movie does not give an answer”: ~5%
@nsokolsky is this based on what the movies thinks or what the probabilities they are satoshi?
Because movie doesn't give an answer should be 0% as To me watching the trailer it's obvious they are talking about something
@Jack1 it’s based off asking it about the movie specifically. Link sharing is broken sadly in Claude again so I can’t paste the full response.
@nsokolsky How on Earth would Claude have information about what's in the movie? These percentages may as well be random lol
@nsokolsky It can't have logic. It can't know things about this movie yet, either. All it does, is barf up words in an order the training data indicate may be likely to seem good enough to a user.
Also, those add to more than 100% on the high end, and under 100% on the low end. The things still can't do math, either.
I hope you can break your slop delusions someday soon.