Who will be major candidates in the 2028 Republican primaries?

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2028

75%

JD Vance

55%

Marco Rubio

45%

Ron DeSantis

42%

Ted Cruz

41%

Josh Hawley

32%

Glenn Youngkin

32%

Nikki Haley

31%

Brian Kemp

27%

Vivek Ramaswamy

25%

Tim Scott

22%

Donald Trump Jr.

19%

Tulsi Gabbard

14%

Eric Trump

For the purposes of this market, a "major candidate" is defined as any candidate who, at any point during the race, had a polling average of at least 10%. In previous years, according to realclearpolling.com, the candidates who would have met this criteria were:

2024: Donald Trump, Ron DeSantis, Nikki Haley

2020: Donald Trump

2016: Donald Trump, Ted Cruz, Ben Carson, John Kasich, Marco Rubio, Jeb Bush, Scott Walker, Carly Fiorina, Rand Paul

2012: Mitt Romney, Newt Gingrich, Rick Santorum, Rick Perry, Herman Cain, Ron Paul, Michele Bachmann

2008: John McCain, Rudy Giuliani, Mike Huckabee, Mitt Romney, Fred Thompson

2024 US Presidential Election

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Does a candidate have to actually be running for their 10% in the polling average to count? Or can a candidate that never enters the race be considered a major candidate?