
Who will be first to AGI
51
1.3kṀ25912050
24%
OpenAI
5%
Microsoft
5%
Meta
3%
Huggingface/homegrown
28%
Google
5%
US government
15%
China government
1.3%
Russia government
1.3%
Apple
13%
AGI is impossible
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Pessoas também estão operando
Will we get AGI before 2028?
14% chance
Will we get AGI before 2032?
44% chance
Will we get AGI before 2029?
29% chance
Will we get AGI before 2034?
53% chance
Will we get AGI before 2035?
56% chance
Will we get AGI before 2033?
49% chance
Will we get AGI before 2031?
41% chance
Will we get AGI before 2036?
57% chance
In what specific year will we hit AGI?
2033
A company from which continent will achieve AGI first?
Ordenar por:
@jim What if AGI is not impossible and actually happens but none of these companies/governments ever reach it because the AGI is a runaway intelligence and blocks all other forms of AGI from developing?
@BrianBors no problem... but to be clear I'm not the market creator and it's not up to me how this resolves!
@jim Ha! It's good that you mention this because I did interpret it that way and bet on that assumption. XD But that is my fault.
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Will we get AGI before 2028?
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Will we get AGI before 2029?
29% chance
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A company from which continent will achieve AGI first?

