Which Supreme Court justice will retire/die next?

1.3kṀ8601

2030

23%

Clarence Thomas

Sonya Sotomayor

1.1%

Amy Coney Barrett

1.1%

Elena Kagan

1.1%

Brett Kavanaugh

1.4%

John Roberts

66%

Samuel Alito

1.1%

Neil Gorsuch

1.2%

Ketanji Brown Jackson

Resolves based on which seat is first to become open due to the resignation or death of a current justice.

SCOTUS

US Judiciary

Mana Seeds Experiment

Get

1,000

to start trading!

Pessoas também estão operando

Will a Supreme Court Justice retire or be replaced for any reason by the end of 2026?

60% chance

Will the next justice to leave the Supreme Court be a conservative?

83% chance

Which Justices will cease to be members of the US Supreme Court before the end of 2026?

Who will be the next person appointed as a Supreme Court Justice in the USA?

What will cause the next Supreme Court vacancy?

Will any sitting Supreme Court justice leave before 2027?

47% chance

When will the next justice be confirmed to the Supreme Court of the United States?

Will a Supreme Court justice retire during Trump’s second term?

91% chance

Who will be the last standing SCOTUS justice?

Will a supreme court justice die in office during trump's term?

Ordenar por:

I cannot bet YES on the 0% options. Neat!

vendeu Ṁ0 YES

Yeah, same here

@mods, it glitches out whenever you try to bet on a 0% option here

comprou Ṁ50 YES

@PaintspotInfez It seems to be working for me. I was able to bet Yes on every option.

comprou Ṁ20 N/A

AIito is only 21 months younger than Thomas, and Thomas just turned down a huge contract from John Oliver.

I prefer binary questions instead of perimutuals, because with perimutuals even if you're right your payoffs get diluted to nothing by people who bet after you with more information than you.

https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-clarence-thomas-leave-the-supr

@JonathanRay Created another binary market for Alito
https://manifold.markets/JonathanRay/will-samuel-alito-leave-the-supreme

Betting on Thomas - Rs seem more likely than not to win the 2024 election, and strategic retirement seems more likely after that (meanwhile Sotomayor is still young enough that she's unlikely to retire this term).