@PlasmaBallin Resolves YES

By "elected president", would that include someone who acceded to the presidency because their predecessor died in office?

@PaintspotInfez no

Why does Biden have a probability so much higher here than in the 2024 election markets? Do people seriously think he's going to lose, run again, and win?

@PlasmaBallin If that scenario occurs, then it worked for Trump, right?

@AndrewHartman Yes, but I think it's much less likely that Biden will pull it off. Trump is a special case in that the majority of the Republican Party is completely devoted to him (and many are more loyal to him than the party itself), and in that he's convinced most of the party that he didn't really lose in 2020, so he doesn't get treated like a failed nominee.

@PlasmaBallin If they remove him from enough state ballots they'll be convinced he didn't lose this one either.

Does this include the 2032 election, with inauguration in 2033?

@robm Yes

arb: