Resolution criteria

This market resolves to the political party that wins the highest number of seats in the Congress of Deputies (Congreso de los Diputados) in the Spanish general election scheduled for November 29, 2026.

• Primary Source: Official election results published by the Ministry of the Interior (Ministerio del Interior) or the Central Electoral Board (Junta Electoral Central - juntaelectoralcentral.es).

• Tiebreaker: In the event that two or more parties tie for the highest number of seats, the market will resolve to the party among them that received the highest total popular vote share nationwide.

• Edge cases:

  • If the election is postponed past 2026, this market will resolve based on the next Spanish general election held.

  • Coalitions running on a joint national list will be treated as that unified entity.

  • Because answer additions are disabled and no "Other" option is available, if a party not listed among the answers wins the most seats, this market will resolve N/A.

Background

Spain's Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez announced an early general election for November 29, 2026, roughly eight months ahead of the constitutional deadline, following a major legislative defeat in Congress over emergency housing reforms.

The three primary contenders listed:

• Partido Popular (PP): Led by Alberto Núñez Feijóo, the center-right PP won the most seats (137) in the July 2023 general election, though it fell short of a governing majority.

• Partido Socialista Obrero Español (PSOE): Led by incumbent Prime Minister Pedro Sánchez, the center-left PSOE finished second in 2023 with 121 seats but formed a government by building a coalition with Sumar and securing parliamentary support from regional and nationalist parties.

• Vox: Led by Santiago Abascal, the right-wing populist party finished third in 2023 with 33 seats.