Do you really think there's a greater than 0.1% chance that any of these resolve YES?

If I'm understanding the resolution criteria correctly, the highest option on this market should be no higher than 100 minus this other market: https://manifold.markets/NcyRocks/can-black-force-a-draw-in-chess?r=Rmlvbg

@Fion Yeah, if White can't force a win from the starting position, all 20 opening moves resolve NO

How do you accomplish optimal play?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen "Optimal play" just means "Assume both sides always choose the move that maximizes their game-theoretic outcome." An option will be resolved YES only if it is shown through a future proof or exhaustive engine analysis that White can force mate from that position.