The French government has committed to buying the first launches of these untested French space companies. More funding will be available if they have a maiden flight between 2026 and 2028.

It's not obvious exactly what that means so think of this market as parallel to the French government's assessment. These markets will resolve YES if any rocket launched by the relevant company puts a payload or an upper stage into orbit before 2029.

https://europeanspaceflight.com/france-expected-to-commit-e400m-to-support-four-launch-startups/