I've just bought a symbolic 1 mana against any of these countries joining.

The only country with a realistic chance is Montenegro, and even they still need to:

• figure out how to join given they already use the euro unilaterally

• close 17/33 negotiating chapters

• everyone sign the treaty

• everyone ratify the treaty

• they themselves need a referendum before ratifying

Enlargements usually happen on January 1 so actually this market has a decent chanceof being wrong by one day. If everything goes perfectly then Montenegro might join in 2029. None of the other countries will make it, this is free mana.

Add Iceland? https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2024/12/22/icelands-incoming-government-says-it-will-put-eu-membership-to-referendum-by-2027

Montenegro pushes for EU membership by 2028, Feb 28 2024

Turkey won't join lol