Ranked #145 after the first two questions!

I see @bens is ranked #128, which I think is the highest of anyone listed here.

@TimothyJohnson5c16 I'm #108 ('elpaso')

@jim Ah, nice work then!

i'm #444

@TimothyJohnson5c16 it very likely won't last, I was intending to do careful predictions on the difficult questions but never got around to it so i have some pretty dumb jimpredictions in the mix

@jim Yeah, I expect to get destroyed on at least a couple of the distribution questions. I wasn't sure how to approach those.

Does the Other option ever get closed from new submissions? Imo it should

see description?

@draaglom woops sorry!

@Bayesian Thanks for the reminder, I'll close this tonight.

My most divergent prediction is that few of the top officials in Trump's administration will leave:

Also, I'm pretty confident that Trump's approval rating will drop slightly, but stay within a narrow band:

@TimothyJohnson5c16 wow the second one that’s bold

@Bayesian I haven't done these continuous distribution questions before, so I may regret my approach in the end. But so far I feel pretty good!

@TimothyJohnson5c16 yeah tbh i dont do them often either and maybe im bad at forecasting low probabilities bc they dont matter much on prediction markets bc of the interest rate.. but i kinda often put one distribution kinda like the one u did and then a second super wide one to represent ‘maybe im goofin, i dont want to lose 10 trillion bayes points from some event being 3+sd outside of my range, but probably the scoring system is more forgivijg of that than bayes would be.. anyway sensible midpoint, i am more cowardly but unclear who is more correct

@Bayesian this is a pretty good approach, and will get you very far on continuous distribution questions XD

@Bayesian @TimothyJohnson5c16 my distribution was also concentrated at less churn in the cabinet but I think that final bucket at 15 is pretty important. There's at least 1-2% chance of a JD Vance presidency (or perhaps even a different president, like Mike Johnson, due to resignations/impeachment, etc) within the next year, and that would result in some high turnover among these positions.

I fear my fortunes for this contest may live or die with a few of these distribution questions, like Montenegro's EU accession. You have to take a few risks if you want a chance at top 5, tbh, but I think I might have been a bit too aggressive in this question.

With the bot score, on the other hand, uhhh, I think the community is just completely wrong lol.

Y'all are screwed, I'm in it this year.