@lostmyhippo I had not considered this possibility until you added this answer, but this would mirror dynamics in other European countries recently, where a party like Reform gains a lot of seats but not an outright majority and very different parties align against them. I've put up a small limit order at 6% if anyone is interested.

@MarkNicoll @Tetraspace can we get a clarification/ruling here? My understanding of the description is that only answers of the form described are allowed, and that "catch all" answers like this can't resolve YES. (Because of the type of market, this answer would prevent us from adding subcases (like "Labour+Lib Dem+SNP coalition" etc) otherwise.)

Is that the right interpretation, @Tetraspace ?

@Fion yep

@Fion No Coalition has ever required a third party in the UK before. The odds of any specific three parties forming a coalition is so imeasurably small I didn't think anyone would want to add one particular combination let alone all of them.

Is "conservatives + reform coalition" the same as "reform + conservative coalition" or does the first name imply senior partner in the coalition?

@Fion while I'm here, what's the definition of "majority" Vs "minority"? Are we subtracting the speaker and any non-sitting Sinn Fein MPs?

@Fion It's the same

@Fion I want "minority government" to mean they'd need votes from some other party to get past a no confidence motion, which I think subtracts Sinn Fein and the Speaker because they will always abstain

@Tetraspace perfect, thanks