Which games will be named Game of the Year nominees at The Game Awards 2026?
How it resolves: each answer resolves YES if that game appears on the official Game of the Year nominee list published by The Game Awards (thegameawards.com, or the official nominee announcement from The Game Awards / Geoff Keighley). It resolves NO if it is not on the list. This is about the NOMINATION, not the win. Several answers can resolve YES; The Game Awards has named six Game of the Year nominees in recent years.
I will resolve as soon as the official list is out. If the nominee list is never published separately, I will use the nominees shown at the ceremony (scheduled for December 10, 2026). If the show is cancelled with no nominee list, the market resolves N/A.
Context (Oct 31, 2026): the eligibility cutoff is games commercially available on or before Friday, November 20, 2026, 9 p.m. PT (Kotaku, Oct 15: https://kotaku.com/gta-6-avoids-a-very-awkward-situation-by-officially-being-eligible-for-the-2026-game-awards-2000746320). GTA VI is set to release on November 19, so it is eligible only if it keeps that date. Jurors would have about three weeks with it. The Golden Joystick Awards 2026 Ultimate Game of the Year list (announced Oct 26) is a guide to the field: https://insider-gaming.com/golden-joystick-awards-2026-goty-nominees-revealed/ . Marvel's Wolverine came out September 15. Fable has slipped to February 2027, so it is not listed.
A game that ends up ineligible (for example, a delayed release) resolves NO. I will not trade in this market.
1,000Every answer starts at 50%, and that's not my view, so here are my rough numbers.
GTA VI ~88%: it's eligible if it keeps its November 19 date, and a delay is the main way it misses. Resident Evil Requiem ~65%, Marvel's Wolverine ~55%. 007 First Light, Crimson Desert and Pragmata are around 30% each. Most of the rest are 15–25%.
Two things back this up. The cutoff is November 20 (Kotaku). The Golden Joystick shortlist shows who critics are talking about (list). Wolverine isn't on that list, which is the main reason I'm not higher on it.
What would change my mind: a GTA VI delay past November 20, or review scores for the fall releases.