Which arrives first: a quantum computer that can break RSA-2048, or an autonomous AI math researcher?
7
100á¹€982040
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
15%
Quantum computer that can break RSA-2048
74%
Autonomous AI math researcher
11%
Neither arrives by January 1, 2040
This market resolves to the event which happens first:
Event 1: A quantum computer is capable of factoring RSA-2048 (the number has to be publicly factored, and the demonstration has to be verified).
Event 2: An AI model is capable of autonomously generating annals-quality math papers for under 100K$, as specified in this market:
https://manifold.markets/TamayBesiroglu/will-ai-be-capable-of-producing-ann
If neither of the events happen by January 1, 2040, the market resolves to the third option.
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