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When will we have an open-weights model on-par with Mythos/Fable
9
100á¹€853
2031
December 3, 2026
86%
Before 2027
98%
Before 2028
98%
Before 2029
98%
Before 2030

"on-par" is defined as within 3 points of Fable/Mythos on benchmarks on average. If Fable scores lower on a benchmark compared to Mythos, I will use Mythos's score

The model should match Mythos on its ability to find vulnerabilities, too.

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@traders Kimi k3 does not match Mythos in finding vulnerabilties

https://www.nist.gov/news-events/news/2026/07/uk-aisi-caisi-preliminary-assessment-kimi-k3s-cyber-capabilities

In fact, it falls behind GPT5.5 and Opus 4.8

https://semgrep.dev/blog/2026/kimi-k3s-code-security-results-lack-precision/#our-results

Kimi K3 Benchmarks: Strong on Paper, Weak on Precision
Kimi K3's security benchmarks look competitive, but testing reveals a major precision gap and poor performance on large codebases. See the full results.

kimi-k3 is 1% behind Fable on DeepSWE XD

how does an open-weight model come that close to Fable on DeepSWE?

---

Regarding resolution: I haven't decided if it matches Fable/Mythos on its ability to find bugs, though I am leaning towards resolving "before 2027" to Yes

/notbayesian/an-open-weight-model-beats-opus-47

Free mana

Kimi K3 is already within 3 points on https://artificialanalysis.ai/

AI Model & API Providers Analysis | Artificial Analysis
Comparison and analysis of AI models and API hosting providers. Independent benchmarks across key performance metrics including quality, price, output speed & latency.

Which version of Fable/Mythos? Fixed version Mythos 5, Fable 5, Mythos Preview, or other?

@David6LScg release version of Fable/Mythos

Pessoas também estão operando

Will OpenAI release a Mythos-class model before Fable is reenabled?
1% chance
Will Anthropic release an open-weights model in 2026?
10% chance
Weights in largest open-weight AI model before October 2026?
Weights in largest open-weight AI model before 2027?
When will Llama 4 Behemoth weights become publicly available?
10/14/26
Will a non-Anthropic company make a Mythos-class model generally available worldwide in 2026?
86% chance
An open weight model beats Opus 4.7 by EOY26
86% chance
Will "Mythos-class" model be called Mythos?
11% chance
Will GigaChat release an open-weights model with ≥100B parameters by the end of 2026?
45% chance
Will Anthropic require training-consent for any frontier model by mid-2027?
16% chance
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