When will an AI lab report 50% or better result on ZeroBench? | Axel

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When will an AI lab report 50% or better result on ZeroBench?

6

225Ṁ616

2033

20%

2026

29%

2027

24%

2028

21%

2029

22%

2030

18%

2031

13%

2032

15%

2033 or later

ZeroBench is a difficult visual benchmark for multi-modal models
https://zerobench.github.io/

This market is about the main questions, pass@1.

Update 2025-08-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): - If the 50%+ pass@1 on ZeroBench's main questions is reported in a given year, only that year resolves to YES; all other years resolve to NO.

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If it happens in e.g. 2027, does just that year, or that and all before, or that and all after resolve to YES?

@TheAllMemeingEye Just that year resolves to YES, the rest resolves to NO.

comprou Ṁ10 NO

@Metastable thanks 👍

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In what year will AI achieve a score of 85% or higher on the SimpleBench leaderboard?

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PhysBench leaderboard?

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the GPQA benchmark?

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the SWE-bench Verified benchmark?

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the PutnamBench leaderboard?

Best 8-hour AI score on RE-Bench >= 0.8 by what year?

In what year will AI achieve a score of 95% or higher on the LiveCodeBench leaderboard?

Will an AI achieve >80% performance on the FrontierMath benchmark before 2027?

What year will the first AI exceed 80% on MLE-bench?

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