Adequate novelty will be my judgement call. I’m likely to treat any major project or publication pattern as such when coming from the US administration or military. Unlikely to count as Yes further action limited to Congress.
I will not bet in this market.
Update 2026-04-11 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A single statement or tweet (even from a high-ranking official) will not count. Resolution requires one of the following:
A new official release that formally organizes written claims and/or alleged documentation, going well beyond what has already been formalized
A release making striking changes from existing narratives
A major change in agency responsibility for producing such documents or documentation (even if nothing is ultimately produced)
1,000If a leader says something either not in their official capacity, or without the evidence/support from their organization, would that still count? Like, for example, if Trump says some new UFO narrative on twitter without evidence to back it up or the support of the people researching it?
@hct It would not. At issue here is not another statement, nor collection of statements, nor pieces of evidence per se, but a new organization or presentation of written claims and/or alleged documentation as an official release that goes well beyond what’s been formalized already, OR makes striking changes from what’s been in place, OR presents a major change iin responsibility for an agency or sub-agency to producing such documents or documentation (even if it fails to produce anything.)