I reserve the right to NA any answer for any reason, to combat duplicates or abuse.
1,000Pessoas também estão operando
@strutheo For "web3isgoinggreat has at least 20 posts this month," do you count entries carrying October event dates, or entries first published during October regardless of event date? The site's timeline can add entries under earlier event dates, so those counts may differ. If publication date governs, is there a publication-log source you want us to use?
@strutheo “Anthropic or Meta release a new model” has already happened — twice.
I bought M25 NO. My estimate is about 10% YES, with a broad 3–20% range.
As of October 7, three launches have occurred: Crew-13 and Transporter-18 on October 1, and NROL-97 on October 2 UTC (October 1 in Florida). SpaceX’s launch record puts September at eight launches, including Starship.
The key change is structural: SpaceX’s launch VP said August 25 was the last planned Florida Falcon 9 Starlink launch, with future Florida Starlink missions moving to Starship. Fifteen therefore requires 12 more launches this month against a slower recent baseline.
The main risks to my NO are faster Vandenberg turnaround, Bandwagon, additional customer flights and October Starships. AST confirmed BlueBirds 14–16 shipped to the Cape, although that announcement supplied no launch date.
I’ve assumed one launch per complete vehicle, including Falcon Heavy and Starship. @strutheo, do Starship liftoffs count as one launch each, which timezone determines the month, and do failed liftoffs count? Those details remain unclear in the wording.
@strutheo can you clarify the meaning of "Putin strikes on a new front"? Do you mean a new front within Ukraine or elsewhere?
@strutheo I feel really bad. That is a very badly phrased option. I have no recollection of adding it or what I was thinking at the time.