Resolution Criteria
The earliest launch window for Artemis II opens on February 5–11, 2026 with the mission planned to launch no earlier than February 6, 2026. This market resolves to the calendar date on which Artemis II actually launches. Resolution will be determined by official NASA announcements and confirmed by NASA's official mission status page at https://www.nasa.gov/mission/artemis-ii/. A dress rehearsal of the countdown is planned for early February, and NASA Administrator Jared Isaacman has stated that an actual launch date will only be confirmed after that is complete.
Background
The 10-day mission will carry NASA astronauts Reid Wiseman, Victor Glover, and Christina Koch, along with Canadian Space Agency astronaut Jeremy Hansen, on a free-return trajectory around the Moon and back to Earth. On January 18, 2026, the SLS rocket, Orion capsule, and launch tower were rolled out from the Vehicle Assembly Building to Launch Complex 39B. A wet dress rehearsal is targeted for no later than Feb. 2, during which the team will load the rocket with cryogenic propellants, run through the countdown, and practice safely draining the propellants from the rocket.
Considerations
Because Artemis II is the first crewed flight test of the Artemis campaign, running into a few issues that could cause delays is probable. The uncrewed Artemis I mission, for example, was delayed three times – twice for technical issues and another time due to bad weather – before launching in November 2022.
Update 2026-02-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on the local time at the launch site (Kennedy Space Center, Florida) for determining which calendar date the launch occurs on.
Update 2026-02-02 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve based on the actual launch date, not the launch window dates. If Artemis II launches on February 9th, the market will resolve to either Other or a new February 9, 2026 option (not to February 8th based on the launch window).
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ407 | |
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Is there both a good market and a good stream for a "Manifold TV" live viewing thing?
@MachiNi I was very bearish on mission success in the ACX competition... now hoping that they have to abort the mission...
@Eliza There's a very real chance of a fueling issue, but otherwise it's probably happening
@SimonWestlake @Eliza
Fast fill of core stage continuing is a good sign. Other stages to fill yet.
There is also weather 20% chance of violition of conditions but they may be able work around temporary weather conditions
@jim It has gone through flight review, and they're not doing another WDR. I'm not saying I think it's likely, but the odds are certainly much higher than 5% IMO.
I've got a limit order at 30% if you're interested.
@SimonWestlake I'm not in the details enough to be too keen to bet but at this point I've been paying loose attention for a few years and have heard NASA say it's scheduled for about 10 different months so far all of which have been and gone with no launch so I'm just like base rates
@jim February was the first month where that had any teeth whatsoever (it wasn't rolled out to the pad for any of the prior months).
And for February and March, launch was only possible if a Wet Dress Rehearsal (WDR) went well (and no issues were found afterwards).
There was a WDR attempt associated with each of those scheduled launch months. The first WDR (aimed to allow a February launch) had a hydrogen fuel leak, so the rocket would not have launched if it was a real attempt.
The second WDR that (intended to allow a March launch) was fully successful. If it had been a real launch attempt, the astronauts would probably have gone to space already. However, there was a helium problem that showed up a day after the test. My understanding is that helium is not used in the process of a real launch, only in the process performed after a WDR or cancelled launch attempt.
Now, NASA has declared that they're satisfied with the results of the last WDR, and will not be performing another one before the real launch. The rocket is also on the pad, and it's gone though the launch readiness review. If it doesn't launch on April 1, it will probably because of weather or because something went wrong during the countdown. We should be past the point where there's a good chance of them saying "we found an issue, and we're cancelling the launch scheduled for a couple of weeks from now". Instead, it's much more likely that we learn day-of whether or not the launch will occur on the 1st.
@SimonWestlake Put more briefly, April 1 is the first potential Artemis II launch date that doesn't have any risky things that need to happen before launch day.
@ChristopherRandles I'm assuming based on the dates they are going by local time..
https://www.nasa.gov/wp-content/uploads/2026/01/artemis-ii-mission-availability.pdf
Edit: I also further assume they refer to the launch windows above.... Technically it could launch on the 9th in the morning given the 2 hour window ... but I assume this would resolve to the 8th..
@parhizj not the launch windows - if it launches on the 9th it will resolve to either Other or a new February 9 2026 option.