what a stupid premise

@cian Sorry

Good luck finding a reliable source on the somali vote rigging scandal in English, but it definitely happened

There was a systematic tribal vote rigging scandal in the swedish general election

@JussiVilleHeiskanen Very interesting... Looking into this now.

@JussiVilleHeiskanen This may resolve YES, but I'll wait for more articles to come out. If no more articles come out I may still resolve YES.

@asmith As a Swede, I don't know exactly what the other guy is talking about with "systematic tribal vote rigging". There have been some parties who complain about immigrants voting against them, and claim that mosques tell voters what to vote for but that's not "actual messing with the votes". If anything it's a scandal about propaganda, which you said would not make this question resolve YES.

The only relevant "vote rigging scandal" that has happened in Sweden is the election of Mohamed Ali, but I don't think that qualifies either.

@Pazzaz Because it's just one candidate out of many?

@asmith There are two reasons I don't think his case qualifies: the scale of the claimed vote rigging is very small, and the scandal surrounding him has more to do with other factors. But explaining why is very technical, so it's gonna be a looooong explanation.

The Swedish parliament has 349 members and the election had c. 7 million votes, so each candidate should represent about 20,000 people. But Mohamed Ali only got 648 votes. So how did he get elected to parliament? Well, when you vote in Sweden you vote using a ballot that represents a party. On that ballot is a ranked list of candidates, where you may optionally mark one of them to vote for that specific candidate. If less than 5% vote for a specific candidate, the party's mandate will just go to whoever's at the top of the list.

Mohammed Ali was on the bottom of the list for the Left Party in Dalarna County. In that county, the Left Party received 10814 votes (which gave them 1 seat), of which 648 of them voted for Mohamed Ali. That's only 6% but more than anyone else on that list, so he got a seat in parliament. Yes, the system is stupid. (source)

So what is the claimed "vote rigging"? It's that police in Dalarna County have evidence of people (though not Ali himself) talking with voters and giving them money and ballots that were pre-marked for Mohammed Ali. Now giving ballots to people is completely legal, but having them pre-marked may be illegal and giving people money to influence their vote is absolutely illegal. But right now we don't have much information as the investigation is still ongoing and the police hasn't announced anything officially; we only have leaks to the media.

Mohammed Ali is not the only one connected to this kind of manipulation: a local candidate for the Moderate Party gave voters pre-marked ballots and offered them jobs. (source) But that didn't become a big scandal. So why is there a big scandal around Mohammed Ali? One part is that people care more about the national parliament than local elections, but it's also because there are a lot of other problems with Mohammed Ali.

Before the election, there was a lot of reporting about the Left Party having bad candidates on their list but they said that they had removed all the bad candidates. But Mohammed Ali got his citizenship less than a year ago, is heavily in debt, lied when applying for citizenship and had connections to gangs. (source) Additionally, the seat he got in Dalarna County was expected to go to the Left Party's climate spokesperson. All this is to say: it probably would have been a scandal even without any accusations of vote fraud, because the Left Party shouldn't have put him on their list to begin with.

I hope this has given you some more understanding of the scandal. At the end of the day, this question is very subjective so you can resolve this YES if you think this scandal qualifies. It's up to you. :)

@Pazzaz Thank you for the write up, it was a good one.

This type of market is best separated into questions for each country. Whether there is a vote rigging scandal in any of these countries is largely independent of there being one in another country - and asking people to estimate odds for a mish-mash of random countries will generate an extremely inaccurate value.

Would this have resolved yes if it was for the US in 2020, where one party made a lot of allegations that were, as far as any investigation could tell, totally baseless?

@MattLashofSullivan : 🤷 I will see how I feel. I guess so.

@asmith if you can't even say definitively whether this highly prominent event would have counted, it seems like a pretty arbitrary market

@MattLashofSullivan Okay, yes, I would count something like that.