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US government nationalizes OpenAI or Anthropic before 2029?
16
1kṀ2142
2028
16%
chance

Resolves YES iff the US government nationalizes either OpenAI or Anthropic (or both) by 11:59pm December 31st 2028.

'Nationalize' means either the US government owns >50% of the firm's equity with voting rights (by whatever means) or USG takes over operations at the firm using some power like eminent domain or exercising the Defense Production Act.

  • Update 2026-07-20 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A US Sovereign Wealth Fund owning >50% of voting equity in OpenAI or Anthropic would count as US government ownership for the purposes of this market.

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comprou Ṁ50 NO

honestly it would be a bad move. they're not equipped to pilot something like that.

The Sovereign Fund owning count as the state owning?

@JussiVilleHeiskanen I think so, if they own more than half of the voting equity

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