The UK Tory party will split into 2 parties or otherwise internally fall apart before 2026 | Axel

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The UK Tory party will split into 2 parties or otherwise internally fall apart before 2026

33

1kṀ5651

2027

3%

chance

1H

6H

1D

1W

1M

ALL

More than 15 MPs must leave in some short burst to go somewhere else (as opposed to a large or small scandal). Or a generally agreed calamity.

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Edit: thanks for updating. :)

I assume 15 MPs leaving gradually won't count? It needs to be part of some kind of splitting/collapsing event, rather than just people retiring and having individual scandals?

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There will be 2 or more UK General elections before Jan 2027 [Currently there has be 1]

Will any UK political party consistently poll at 35% or higher in 2026?

Which two parties will get the most seats in Parliament following the next UK general election after 2025?

Will Reform UK and the Conservative Party merge before the next General Election, OR 15 August 2029?

Conditional on losing the upcoming general election, how soon will the UK Conservative party be back in power?

Will a new UK political party gain 50+ seats by the end of 2028? (In the house of commons)

Who will lead the Conservative Party into the next UK general election?

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