Resource use of quantum 256-bit ECDLP attacks EoY 2028
1
100Ṁ202028
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
50%
≤ 1200 logical qubits and ≤ 70 million Toffoli gates
50%
≤ 1450 logical qubits and ≤ 50 million Toffoli gates
28%
≤ 950 logical qubits and ≤ 90 million Toffoli gates
A new paper from Google demonstrates that there are procedures that break 256-bit ECDLP over secp256k1 with, optionally:
≤ 1200 logical qubits and ≤ 90 million Toffoli gates
≤ 1450 logical qubits and ≤ 70 million Toffoli gates
This question asks if improvements will be made to this frontier by EoY 2028.
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