Prop resolves Yes if, according to the last Siena College poll published on or before June 30, 2026, Zohran Mamdani’s net favorability rating among New York City residents is positive.
This is one of 25 props in the 11th annual Narcissist Forecasting Contest, as described here:
https://braff.co/advice/f/announcing-the-2026-narcissist-forecasting-contest
The prop and any ambiguities will be resolved by a panel of human judges, as described in the fine print of the entry form:
https://forms.gle/nDDxdxyYSNheY9FV7
This means that the prop may resolve differently from how other, similar-looking Manifold props resolve. Do not bet on this market if that is going to bother you.
1,000Yesterday Siena released (what is almost surely) the poll that will decide this question as Yes. "NYC Mayor Zohran Mamdani also saw an improvement in his favorability rating. It is now 45-34%, up from 43-40% in April. In New York City, his favorability rating is 58-26%, up from 56-34%." https://sri.siena.edu/2026/06/25/hochul-favorability-approval-ratings-edge-up-as-does-her-general-election-lead-over-blakeman-now-52-32-from-49-33/
