
Is the Collatz conjecture true?
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In what year will the Collatz conjecture be solved?
2045
Will the Collatz Conjecture (3x+1 problem) be solved before 2030?
15% chance
What will be the first published counterexample to Collatz conjecture?
Will the Collatz conjecture be resolved by the end of the decade (11:59, 31 December 2029)?
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Does the Collatz sequence reach 1 for all starting points below 10^100?
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Will a counterexample to the Collatz conjecture be found before midnight new year 2028?
3% chance
If the Collatz conjecture is false, what is the binary logarithm of the first published counterexample, or first published upper bound?
933
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44% chance
Will the Riemann Hypothesis be solved before the Collatz Conjecture?
73% chance
Will the first valid proofs of the Collatz Conjecture and the Riemann Hypothesis occur within 12 months of one another?
22% chance
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This just convinced me the probability is lower than I thought (ie, that the possibility of finding a counterexample, something that loops forever, is higher than I thought):
https://x.com/AlexKontorovich/status/1172715174786228224
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In what year will the Collatz conjecture be solved?
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