This resolves based on the best estimate of what happened to the plurality of users that were active on manifold.markets during the year 2023

Definitions

Immortality: Being over 200 years old with an annual death probability of less than 0.1%

Death by AGI: Any non-natural death where AGI plays a role in any form. For example, a nuclear war initiated with the involvement of AGI in the decision-making process or in building the nukes would count for this option