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If an AI winter happens before 2030, what is the most likely reason for it?
31
1kṀ997
2031
1%
Lawsuits & civil disputes
15%
Legislation/treaties
13%
Economic crash
12%
War
0.1%
Sabotage
56%
Natural limits / diminishing returns
4%
Something else

Multiple choice. Assuming an AI winter happens before resolution, which of these scenarios is most likely to bring it about?

Resolves N/A if an AI winter doesn't happen.

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Model size doubles every three months.

Compute cost halves every 18 months.

Arguably there is nothing new in GPT-3/4 that wasn’t known in 2017. It’s all dividends from scaling.

Possible to see an “AI fall” as video or motion control are just very expensive.

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Will we have at least one more AI winter before AGI is realized?
+3% 1d28% chance
Will one of these AI researchers claim we're in an AI winter before 2030?
58% chance
Will there be an AI Winter between 2022 and 2026?
14% chance
Will humans deliberately cause an AI winter?
24% chance
Are we about to hit another AI winter in 2026?
15% chance
Will an AI winter happen by 2030?
22% chance
Will there be a massive catastrophe caused by AI before 2030?
24% chance
Will AI wipe out AI before the year 2030?
4% chance
Contingent on AI being perceived as a threat, will humans deliberately cause an AI winter before 2030?
17% chance
If the progress of AI experiences a slowdown before 2030, what might be the cause?
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