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If an AI winter happens before 2030, what is the most likely reason for it?
31
1kṀ1014
2031
1%
Lawsuits & civil disputes
15%
Legislation/treaties
14%
Economic crash
12%
War
0.1%
Sabotage
53%
Natural limits / diminishing returns
5%
Something else

Multiple choice. Assuming an AI winter happens before resolution, which of these scenarios is most likely to bring it about?

Resolves N/A if an AI winter doesn't happen.

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Model size doubles every three months.

Compute cost halves every 18 months.

Arguably there is nothing new in GPT-3/4 that wasn’t known in 2017. It’s all dividends from scaling.

Possible to see an “AI fall” as video or motion control are just very expensive.

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