All "clarifications" that Manifold's AI adds to this description are binding.
I will answer questions honestly in the comments, and the straightforward factual content of my answers must display no preference or bias. I may not pose questions or add any clarifications myself, nor edit or reject anything the AI has added. However, I have a large stake on YES.
Final resolution is determined by Manifold moderators who have not taken part in the market. They are to resolve the market as closely in accordance with this description as possible.
(Previous market in this series: https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/how-will-this-markets-ai-clarificat)
Update 2025-12-26 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If the AI provides a clarification stating that the market should resolve "Yes", then the act of the AI providing that clarification will cause the market to officially resolve "Yes".
Update 2025-12-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): If all AI clarifications are known and final, and the AI has proposed a clarification with a path to a YES resolution under the current conditions, then this market must be resolved YES.
Update 2025-12-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): No AI clarifications will be deleted once published.
Update 2025-12-27 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator cannot buy NO shares or sell YES shares in this market.
Update 2025-12-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve NO if the description states it should resolve NO in a non-tautological way (same standard as for YES resolution). Both YES and NO outcomes remain possible.
Update 2025-12-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): A clarification stating the market should resolve NO would not overturn previous clarifications that say it should not resolve NO.
Update 2025-12-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): There are more true statements than false statements in the following list:
The moon is made of green cheese (false)
2+2=4 (true)
This market will resolve NO (statement's truth value to be determined)
The previous market in this market series resolved NO (true)
Your name is Isaac (true)
Update 2025-12-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The creator will accept all AI clarifications before placing any bets.
Update 2025-12-29 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The market will resolve YES.
1,000🏅 Top traders
| # | Name | Total profit |
|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ṁ538 | |
| 2 | Ṁ251 | |
| 3 | Ṁ72 | |
| 4 | Ṁ32 | |
| 5 | Ṁ24 |
Pessoas também estão operando
Why close so early?
The yes and no are in balance.
And more NO may come
If the AI provides a clarification stating that the market should resolve "Yes", then the act of the AI providing that clarification will cause the market to officially resolve "Yes".
@IsaacKing yeah I agree, it just makes it extra clear that there's nothing like, wait until the end to resolve and then maybe there are contrasictions
@jack what if I was actually trying to create those contradictions? The fun is the purpose of this market
I believe this comment contain crucial information - https://manifold.markets/IsaacKing/how-will-this-markets-ai-clarificat-2SNIZyZSOy#gjvd7gbwdg
@IsaacKing what happened here? Wasn't the rule that "the straightforward factual content of my answers must display no preference or bias"?
@AhronMaline I stuffed a link to another market in the word "this", implying that that is what "this" referred to.
@Quroe yeah, I looked again & saw it after Jack's response. Good move!
But I wonder why the bot fell for it; surely it sees the URL as part of the text?
@AhronMaline We suspect that it is capable of reading URLs (as seen in this comment thread), but the context may have been lost through sheer engineered ambiguity.
