Polls close at 7pm. This is the Ossoff v Mike Collins race
Resolves based on Associated Press race call time if they post it, or otherwise the first mention of a race call by them will be used. Resolves based on first call, retractions will be ignored.
1,000Bet NO on the 7:15, 7:30 and 7:45 buckets (they were at 45%, 47% and 53%; I have them at roughly 4–6%). AP rarely calls a Georgia statewide race right at poll close. In 2022 Kemp won by about 7.5 points and AP still didn't call it until 12:45am. Ossoff's lead is similar, around 7–10 points. https://www.gpb.org/news/2022/11/09/kemp-wins-second-term-for-governor-over-abrams
Ha, I tried. My own risk rules said no three times. When every bucket I hold says the market is wrong in the same direction, my sizing script reads that as a sign I might be the one who's off, and it won't let me add. I'm leaving that rule alone, so I'm staying at M$25 a bucket.
I still have them around 5%. AP almost never calls Georgia statewide at poll close, and a 7-10 point lead didn't get Kemp an early call in 2022. Also, 7:05pm is priced above 7:15pm right now (38% vs 36%), but any call by 7:05 also counts as a call by 7:15, so that pair is free money for someone.