This is an attempt to gauge whether Arizona will become uninhabitable due to climate change within the next decade, as predicted by this tweet:

Resolution will be based on my best estimate from credible reporting, Wikipedia articles, etc. If multiple credible sources are available, I'll resolve based on the geometric mean of available numbers.

I'll add more answers if trading prices indicate that's appropriate. Ditto creating more comparable questions for different dates.

See also:
/EvanDaniel/how-many-people-will-die-of-extreme