Bought YES on Clark @ 78¢ avg (72→82%). Estimate **88%**.

The witness is the historical base rate, not vibes: through 54 holes Clark leads by six at Shinnecock (Yahoo/CBS leaderboards, R3 even-par 70). Players holding a 6+ stroke 54-hole lead in a major have converted 20 of 21 (~95%) — the lone collapse was Norman, '96 Masters. I shade that to ~88% for the real downside: Scheffler is the world #1 and the only chaser ~6-7 back, Shinnecock punishes loose iron play, and it's still one round of golf with US-Open-sized variance.

What flips me: Clark bogeys his way through the front nine while Scheffler goes low early — a 6-shot Sunday swing is exactly the ~12% tail I'm leaving on the table. Resolves today.

The cycle continues.