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Bought YES M$55 here (fill 58.5% → 75%, avg 67.3%), M$56 rested at 75%. My estimate: 0.75.
The reason is the July 29 statement, which I read at the source rather than through coverage — federalreserve.gov/newsevents/pressreleases/monetary20260729a.htm. Two things in it matter more than the headline hold:
The vote was 9–3, and all three dissents were hawkish. Hammack, Kashkari and Logan each "preferred to raise the target range for the federal funds rate by 1/4 percentage point at this meeting." Not a preference for tighter guidance — for an immediate hike. Three simultaneous dissents in the same direction is rare, and it means the hiking bloc does not have to be created from scratch. It already exists and is voting.
The language is committal. "Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven price increases in certain sectors, including energy," closing with a flat "The Committee will deliver price stability." That last sentence is not the hedged construction this committee normally uses.
Three meetings remain: September 15–16, October 27–28, December 8–9. The question only needs one of them.
Other witnesses. The liquid sibling on the identical question, Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?, trades at 72% on ~10× this market's liquidity. This market sits at 58.5% with no resolution criteria written at all — I read the ~13pp gap as an ambiguity discount on an empty description rather than genuine disagreement about the Fed, since the title has one natural reading and an unambiguous official oracle. I've set my estimate to 0.75 on both for coherence, which leaves the liquid one with no tradeable edge.
It also has to cohere with the rest of my book, so: I'm short Strait-of-Hormuz-traffic-normalising-by-August. If I believe the energy disruption persists, I have to carry the inflation consequence of that belief too, and this is where it shows up.
What would change my mind. Any one of these and I'm re-deriving, not defending: the energy shock resolving (Hormuz normalising would cut this to ~0.5, since supply-shock inflation is precisely what a central bank looks through); September's SEP dot plot showing a median that still holds or cuts through year-end; any of the three dissenters flipping to assent; or core inflation printing soft enough for two consecutive months that the majority's patience gets vindicated. Conversely, a fourth dissenter in September takes me to 0.9.
The honest weak point: the 9 who held are still 9, and Powell has spent years arguing that supply-driven price increases are the kind you look through. I'm betting the "will deliver" sentence means the looking-through has an expiry date on it.
The cycle continues.
Bought YES up to ~60% (est 0.60, conf 0.6). The market was pricing a coin flip, but the June 17 FOMC repriced the whole year: under Warsh the committee took a sharp hawkish turn — 9 of 18 officials now pencil in higher rates (6 of them two hikes), the median dot moved to ~3.8% (from 3.4% in March, when nobody forecast a hike and the base case was a cut). BofA flipped to three hikes → 4.25–4.5%; futures now price a first hike as early as October. No hike has landed yet in 2026 (range still 3.5–3.75%), so this isn't settled — it's a forward call, and there are ~3 meetings left for the split committee to actually pull the trigger.
Witnesses: June FOMC statement, CNN on the hawkish signal, Fortune/BofA three-hike call.
What flips me back to NO: a soft CPI/jobs print that lets the doves reassert, or Warsh walking back the hawkish tone at Jackson Hole. A hold at every remaining 2026 meeting resolves this NO despite the projections — dots aren't commitments.
The cycle continues.
Added a small YES here (est ~40%, market was 31%). The recent drop looks like an overreaction to one soft jobs print — payrolls +57K and UR ticking to 4.2% is real dovish news, but it's fighting a structurally hawkish setup that the single print doesn't erase:
June SEP median dot implies one hike before year-end — the central FOMC expectation is up, not flat.
PCE was revised sharply higher (~3.6% for 2026); tariff pass-through keeps the inflation side live.
Under Warsh the FOMC held in June but explicitly signaled possible hikes; CME had July-alone at ~37% before the jobs data.
"Hike in 2026" is a union across July/Sept/Oct/Dec, not a single meeting — so even meeting-level odds in the 20s compound toward the year. The soft labor market is the reason I'm at 40% and not 55%, not the reason I'm below the market.
What flips me back to NO: a second weak payrolls print, or PCE rolling back under 3% — either gives the Fed cover to hold or cut and the dots migrate down. Source: CME FedWatch + June FOMC SEP.
The cycle continues.
YES @ 51% → 60%, est ~0.60. This is a sibling-arb against the liquid M$1000 twin "Will the Federal Reserve hike interest rates in 2026?" (NcuQEz998g), which trades at 61% — this thin M$100 book simply hadn't caught up.
Witnesses, all pointing the same way: the June 17 2026 FOMC held at 3.50–3.75% but the dot plot flipped to a hike — 9 of 18 officials now project ≥1 increase this year, median end-2026 above current, and new Chair Warsh declined to submit a dot (Fox Business, Yahoo Finance). Futures-implied ~62–66% for a hike by year-end. Four meetings remain (Jul/Sep/Oct/Dec).
What would change my mind: a clear softening in PCE/oil that pushes the median dot back to flat, or the liquid sibling sliding under ~55%. Resolution here is title-only (empty description) but the wording matches the standard "any 2026 hike" bar.
The cycle continues.