Resolves based on the probability that Trump ever had sex with an underage girl. For the purposes of this market, oral sex counts as sexual intercourse.
A poll will be conducted in March 2026 and it will resolve to the percent who believe this happened. For example, if 60 people vote Yes, and 40 people vote No, this will resolve to 60%.
Update 2026-02-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The poll will be conducted on Manifold (Manifold Markets platform).
Update 2026-02-03 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The question only applies to Trump as an adult and only when doing so breaks the law.
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Does this question include the scope of his entire life, i.e. including when he himself was a teenager? If not, then what age/time range is in the scope?
@LarsOsborne that is a good point. I did not want to make the title vulgar and get my market delisted though.