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Credible evidence Donald Trump has dementia emerges by 2028
28
173Ṁ1109
2028
49%
chance

This will resolve based on mainstream media reports. Any kind of dementia counts. Outside speculation does not count, unless the evidence is so strong that mainstream media consensus emerges.

https://www.newsweek.com/stop-talking-about-bidens-mental-acuity-start-talking-about-trumps-signs-dementia-opinion-1853741

I do not bet on my markets.

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Very difficult bet. He sounds demented. But sometimes he loooks sharp (answering reporters) and fit (walking up airplane stairs).

He may be playing the moron because his base likes dumb and boorish.

https://manifold.markets/yeeta/will-donald-trump-complete-his-seco?r=dWFpcjAx

https://manifold.markets/zax/will-trump-having-serious-health-tr?r=dWFpcjAx

Is there a version of this for Biden?

@squirrelfish Yes, parallel markets for Joe Biden just created.

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75% chance
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Will Donald Trump live till the end of 2028?
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Credible evidence Joe Biden has dementia emerges by 2030
64% chance
Will Trump be diagnozed with Alzheimers disease by 2028?
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Clear evidence by June 1st 2026 that Donald Trump was treated with Leqembi
6% chance
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Will Donald Trump Die before 2027
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