Dario Amodei mentioned in Davos recently that he is planning to publish an essay on AI risk, and how it might be navigated. My sense is that Yudkowsky would write a significant response (say, more than 2000 words) if and only if he greatly disagrees with it. This market is a somewhat lazy operationalization of my hypothesis.
Update 2026-04-08 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): The condition for this market (a significant Amodei essay before March) has been met. Dario Amodei published "The Adolescence of Technology" after market creation and before March 2026. The market will resolve based on whether Yudkowsky writes a long response (2000+ words) before May.
1,000@AdamK this should resolve N/A; I don't see any evidence that Amodei published an essay in March 2026 (as in https://www.darioamodei.com/)
@duck_master He did. https://darioamodei.com/essay/the-adolescence-of-technology
It was published after market creation and before March.