By what factor will the cost per token of "Gemini 3 Pro equivalent" intelligence change this year?
7
1kṀ473
Dec 31
41%
< 0.05x
21%
0.05x - 0.2x
15%
0.2x - 0.5x
11%
0.5x - 0.9x
8%
0.9x - 1.1x
5%
> 1.1x

Intelligence bar

"Gemini 3 Pro equivalent intelligence" is defined as any commercially available model scoring the same as Gemini 3 Pro on ECI or better


Currently this is 154, but the bar will track any changes in ECI methodology that might change the 3 Pro score.

Cost

Cost is defined as the price for 1m input tokens plus 1m output tokens for the cheapest model that passes the quality bar, at the generally-available API pricing tier for that model.

At time of writing, 3-pro preview costs $2/Mtok input plus $12/Mtok output, so $14 is the reference cost basis.

E.g. a future qualifying model that costs $1/Mtok input plus $3/MTok output would resolve as 4/14 = 0.286... thus 0.2x-0.5x.

Fine print

  • Eligible models must be commercially available over a hosted API which is widely accepted as 'production quality'.

  • In the event that ECI no longer exists or is not kept up to date, I'll define equivalence based on the most widely accepted and standard general capability benchmark available.

  • In the event of exactly hitting the threshold between two buckets, the cost will count as being in the higher of the two buckets.

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Currently qualifying models:

GPT-5.4: ECI 156, cost for our purposes: $17.50, so 1.25x

Sonnet 4.6: ECI 153, cost for our purposes: $18, so 1.286x

Opus 4.6: ECI 156, cost for our purposes: $30, so 2.143x

Gemini 3.1 Pro: ECI 157, cost for our purposes: $14, so 1x

So if this resolved today it'd resolve 0.9x-1.1x.

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