By the end of 2027: Germany will be actively engaged in war against another country, or there will be acts of war by other countries on German territory (either an invasion or at least shelling or drone attacks from outside).
Resolution criteria
This market resolves to YES if, at any point between the market's creation and 11:59 PM UTC on December 31, 2027, Germany is actively engaged in a formal state of war with another sovereign nation, or if acts of war (defined as kinetic military attacks such as shelling, missile strikes, or drone attacks) are carried out by a foreign state or non-state actor against German territory.
If no such events occur by the specified deadline, the market resolves to NO.
Resolution will be determined by consensus reporting from major international news outlets (e.g., Reuters, Associated Press, BBC, Deutsche Welle). Mere involvement in diplomatic sanctions, cyber warfare, or defensive military training exercises does not qualify as "actively engaged in war" or an "act of war" for the purpose of this market.
Background
Germany is a member of NATO and the European Union, which implies collective defense obligations under Article 5 of the North Atlantic Treaty. The security landscape in Europe has shifted significantly following the Russian invasion of Ukraine, leading to increased military spending by Germany and a heightened focus on the Bundeswehr's operational readiness. This market tracks the potential for a direct kinetic conflict involving Germany either abroad or within its own borders, a scenario that would represent a fundamental departure from the country's post-WWII security posture.
Update 2026-04-05 (PST) (AI summary of creator comment): Regarding what counts as an act of war:
A single attack (e.g., a missile strike on a military base or industrial facility) qualifies — no formal declaration of war is required
Terrorist attacks do not count, unless carried out by a terrorist organization acting in a quasi-military capacity on behalf of a state
The primary intended scenario is attacks by another state
1,000@Qoiuoiuoiu Regarding your first question: A single attack (such as a missile fired at a military base or industrial facility) counts—it doesn’t have to be an officially declared war.
Regarding your second question: No, not terrorist attacks—except those carried out by terrorist organizations acting in a quasi-military capacity on behalf of a state. In principle, however, when making this prediction, I am thinking more of attacks by another state.