By 2035, will mechanistic interpretability enable Nobel Prize-winning work?
6
100Ṁ842034
37%
chance
1H
6H
1D
1W
1M
ALL
This market will resolve to "Yes" if, by December 31, 2035, a Nobel Prize in any category is awarded for work that explicitly utilizes mechanistic interpretability techniques in artificial intelligence, or explicitly dependent on work that utilizes mechanistic interpretability techniques.
Esta pergunta é gerenciada e resolvida pela Predita.
Get 
1,000 to start trading!
1,000Pessoas também estão operando
Perguntas relacionadas
Will some Millennium Prize Problem be solved by AI before 2032?
53% chance
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for the human brain before 2040?
21% chance
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-4 before 2030?
12% chance
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-3 before 2030?
13% chance
Will mechanistic interpretability be essentially solved for GPT-2 before 2030?
35% chance
Will a model costing >$30M be intentionally trained to be more mechanistically interpretable by end of 2027? (see desc)
61% chance
Will "How To Become A Mechanistic Interpretability ..." make the top fifty posts in LessWrong's 2025 Annual Review?
50% chance
Will mechanistic/transformer interpretability [eg Neel Nanda] end up affecting p(doom) more than 5%?
10% chance
Will we reverse-engineer a language model into an interpretable (python) program by 2027?
4% chance
What percentage of mechanistic interpretability is solved for GPT-2?
33% chance