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By 2027 will Adam be replaced by a novel optimization algorithm?
29
1ká¹€2110
2027
56%
chance

I am including both Adam and close variants (e.g. AdamW).

To judge it I will look at the top 20 most cited ML papers released that year. If >= 50% of them use a novel optimization algorithm, market resolves YES.

If Adam is replaced by an existing optimization algorithm, or it remains the most common optimization algorithm, market resolves NO.

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previuYES

Here's one candidate: a meta-optimiser that just won a best paper award at NeurIPS "Gradient Descent: The Ultimate Optimizer" https://openreview.net/forum?id=-Qp-3L-5ZdI

Does your criterion require that >= 50% are using the SAME novel algo?

@mcld Good question: I will say no, it does not require the same novel algorithm.

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