Benchmark Gap #4: Once a single AI model solves >= 95% of miniF2F, MATH, and MMLU STEM, how many months will it be before an AI is listed as a (co) first author on a published math paper?
9
410á¹€599
2050
37
esperado

This question is meant to measure the gap between solving the main math-based benchmarks at the time of market creation, and contributing to real world mathematics.

The co first author requirement is loose: I will also accept an AI being credited with significant contributions to both deciding what to prove and the actual proof (merely contributing to the proof is not enough - I am trying to get at "the AI does the work of a mathematician" not "the AI does the work of a proof assistant"). I would also accept, for instance, the human author of the paper expressing that they would have named the AI as a coauthor if it was human, or saying that the result could not have been obtained without the assistance of the AI.

Get
á¹€1,000
to start trading!
Ordenar por:

In a lot of pure math, author order is arbitrary/alphabetical. Removing that, I second that it'll be 0. Maybe negative.

I think it is plausible that it will be <0

People already list ChatGPT as a coauthor in scientific papers but not in math yet.

Pessoas também estão operando

By 2030, AI can autonomously prove mathematical theorems that are publishable in mathematics journals today?
92% chance
Benchmark Gap #5: Once a single AI model solves >= 95% of miniF2F, MATH, and MMLU STEM, will it be less than two years before AI models are used as entry-level data science / data analysis / statistics workers?
67% chance
Benchmark Gap #8: Once a single AI gets >= 80% on FrontierMath Tier 4, how long until an AI publishes a math paper?
13
Will an AI co-author a mathematics research paper published in a reputable journal before the end of 2026?
53% chance
Will AI models solve at least 2 FrontierMath Open Problems before 2027?
83% chance
Benchmark Gap #3: Once a model achieves superhuman performance on a competitive programming benchmark, will it be less than 2 years before there are "entry level" AI programmers in industry use?
78% chance
Which MATH-AI 23 works will have >50 Google Scholar citations by end of 2026?
Will AI contribute as much as a co-author would today to a real research mathematics paper before Jan 1 2028?
96% chance
Benchmark Gap #9: Once a model solves current software engineering benchmarks, how long until humans don't code?
8.1
Benchmark Gap #1: Once we have a language model that achieves expert human performance on all *current* major NLP benchmarks, how many years will it be before we have an AI with human-level language skills?
4.3
© Predita Markets, Inc.•Termos de Uso•Privacidade