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Before 2030, will an AI complete the Turing Test in the Kurzweil/Kapor Longbet?
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aberto a Ṁ4,000 NO at 60% order

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"Complete" as in "take the test," or as in "pass the test"?

previuNO

@DavidBolin Pass the test. An expert version of it. See the Metaculus market for details. The Metaculus market is in turn based on the inaugural bet at longbets.org, as is the following market: https://manifold.markets/dreev/will-ai-pass-the-turing-test-by-202

Will AI pass the Turing test by 2029 Jan 1?
74% chance. This is based on the inaugural longbets.org bet. I think Kapor will win and Kurzweil will lose, i.e., that a computer will not pass [what Kurzweil calls a valid] Turing test by 2029. ((Bayesian) Update: But I admit the probability has jumped up recently!) See also https://www.metaculus…

So these can be arbitraged since they're predicting exactly the same thing.

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Pessoas também estão operando

Will AI pass Video Turing Test by 2030?
68% chance
Will AI pass the Rube Goldberg Turing test by the end of 2028?
38% chance
Will AI pass the Bob Ross Turing Test by 2035?
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In what year will there be an AI capable of passing a high-quality Turing test?
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